Apple Pay is Apple Inc.’s digital wallet and contactless payment service, launched in September 2014. As of 2024–2025 it has approximately 785 million global users across 78 markets, with 11,000+ bank and network partners and availability at tens of millions of stores and millions of websites and apps. In the US, Apple Pay accounts for approximately 49% of all mobile wallet users, 54% of in-store mobile wallet taps, and held a 14.22% online payments market share (by merchant adoption) in 2025 — compared to PayPal Branded Checkout’s 47.43% merchant presence. Global TPV reached 450 billion+ in 2025, up from $268 billion in 2024 (+68% YoY).
The most significant competitive development for PayPal Holdings is the convergence of US user bases. PayPal Holdings has approximately 92 million US domestic accounts (projected <1% growth in 2026); eMarketer projects Apple Pay will reach 90.5 million US users by 2026, with iPhone commanding ~59% of the US smartphone market providing near-automatic adoption. UBS analysts estimated Apple Pay US online volumes at approximately 3.2 trillion total US eCommerce) and projected Apple Pay US online volumes would be slightly larger than PayPal Branded Checkout by 2025 and beyond. Apple’s October 2024 expansion of Apple Pay to third-party desktop browsers on non-iOS devices extends this threat beyond the mobile segment where Apple has historically dominated. Among Gen Z specifically, 73.1% of Gen Z digital wallet owners use Apple Pay at least weekly.
A rarely-cited historical data point complicates the “Apple always winning” narrative: in 2018, Apple Pay US merchant acceptance actually fell from 48% to 35%, while PayPal simultaneously grew from 48% to 64% — a full reversal of competitive position in a single year (Retail Dive / Forrester, 2018). The 2018 data reflected retailer resistance to Apple’s NFC/proprietary reader requirements and strong PayPal growth through Braintree’s enterprise expansion. Apple Pay recovered that merchant-acceptance gap over the following five years, reaching 94% of US retailers by 2025. The episode is historically significant because it established the template for how incumbent checkout providers can survive Big Tech wallet pushes — not indefinitely, but for longer than single-year data suggests.
Conflict: coinlaw.io (2026) cites 580M+ global Apple Pay users. Other sources (Capital One Shopping Research, Apple newsroom) cite 785M global users. The coinlaw figure may reflect active-transaction users versus enrolled; the 785M figure may include all enrolled Apple Pay accounts regardless of recent usage. Unresolved — both may be correct under different definitions. See open_questions for tracking.
Apple Pay’s structural advantages compound with time rather than eroding. The iPhone ecosystem creates passive distribution: any iPhone user has Apple Pay enrolled automatically via iCloud Keychain, with no separate download, account creation, or password required. The authentication experience — Face ID or Touch ID biometrics — is faster and lower-friction than PayPal’s redirect model. The iOS 18 BNPL integration (live: Affirm, Klarna at Apple Pay checkout) directly competes with PayPal Holdings’ Pay in 4 product by embedding installment options at the Apple Pay button level. Rewards integrations (Discover live; Synchrony, FIS, Fiserv planned) further enrich the value proposition without requiring a separate loyalty programme.
A nuanced strategic development is PayPal’s planned balance visibility integration into Apple Wallet in 2025. While framed as a partnership, the structural implication is that PayPal becomes a funding source within Apple’s payment ecosystem rather than a competing checkout experience. This echoes the broader pattern: Apple does not need to “beat” PayPal in the P2P or merchant-building sense; it simply needs PayPal to be relegated to a funding rail while Apple Pay controls the checkout button and consumer authentication relationship. Customer satisfaction data (Apple-commissioned Morning Consult, Sep 2024) shows 90% ease of use, 88% privacy, 87% security, 98% likely to recommend — metrics that will not reverse.
Ontology
Apple Pay OWNED_BY Apple Inc Apple Pay COMPETES_WITH PayPal Branded Checkout Apple Pay COMPETES_WITH Venmo // tap-to-pay in-store Apple Pay COMPETES_WITH Google Pay Apple Pay INTEGRATES Apple Cash // peer-to-peer within Apple ecosystem Apple Pay INTEGRATED_INTO PayPal Holdings // PayPal balance funding source (2025)
Connections
- PayPal Branded Checkout — primary competitive threat; approaching US user parity; may exceed US online volume
- Apple Cash — P2P component within Apple’s wallet ecosystem
- Google Pay — secondary competitor in mobile wallet space; ~30% US mobile wallet share
- PayPal Holdings — integration partner (PayPal balance visible in Apple Wallet) but structurally competitive
- PayPal Branded Checkout TPV Q4 2025 — metrics node showing Apple Pay’s encroachment